Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.095270 0.108189 0.122189 0.138484 0.156929 0.177160 0.201033
2026-01-04 0.073966 0.090489 0.109731 0.133787 0.163057 0.197518 0.241191
2026-01-11 0.059772 0.078295 0.101339 0.132097 0.172077 0.222297 0.290219
2026-01-18 0.049567 0.069262 0.095341 0.132369 0.183591 0.251977 0.350308
2026-01-25 0.039218 0.058292 0.085095 0.125463 0.184718 0.268550 0.396317
2026-02-01 0.030918 0.048748 0.075266 0.117516 0.183138 0.281242 0.439272
2026-02-08 0.025222 0.042066 0.068512 0.112961 0.185811 0.300572 0.495404
2026-02-15 0.020644 0.036332 0.062266 0.108142 0.187278 0.318313 0.552177
2026-02-22 0.018023 0.033380 0.060043 0.109548 0.199192 0.354797 0.645963
2026-03-01 0.015045 0.029268 0.055152 0.105503 0.201027 0.374509 0.714187
2026-03-08 0.012758 0.026013 0.051249 0.102574 0.204372 0.397403 0.792056
2026-03-15 0.010916 0.023285 0.047871 0.100053 0.208051 0.421462 0.876185
2026-03-22 0.009778 0.021826 0.046835 0.102242 0.221921 0.468402 1.015808
2026-03-29 0.008508 0.019850 0.044414 0.101159 0.228942 0.502933 1.136476
2026-04-05 0.007559 0.018408 0.042888 0.101771 0.239807 0.547511 1.287219
2026-04-12 0.006816 0.017303 0.041920 0.103491 0.253545 0.600818 1.467557
2026-04-19 0.005807 0.015354 0.038656 0.099216 0.252539 0.620662 1.573840
2026-04-26 0.004891 0.013458 0.035173 0.093761 0.247694 0.630732 1.658613
2026-05-03 0.004236 0.012113 0.032825 0.090759 0.248520 0.654844 1.783418
2026-05-10 0.003659 0.010863 0.030493 0.087362 0.247709 0.674755 1.901248
2026-05-17 0.003357 0.010329 0.029987 0.088886 0.260573 0.732684 2.132628
2026-05-24 0.002928 0.009335 0.028018 0.085890 0.260215 0.754951 2.268971
2026-05-31 0.002583 0.008527 0.026435 0.083724 0.261886 0.783232 2.428210